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YARA INTERNATIONAL (YAR.OL, NKr116.75, OUTPERFORM, TP NKr290, UNDERWEIGHT) – INITIATE WITH OUTPERFORM, TP NKR290 - Balancing what we believe is an attractive valuation with a near-term challenging trading environment. Falling grain prices & worsening farm economics, in combination with poor credit availability, have resulted in a collapse in fertiliser demand & nitrogen-based fertiliser pricing. Co’s shares have traded sharply down with events. Following record earnings in Q3, earnings will likely fall appreciably in Q4 (q-o-q). We believe share offers attractive value pricing in a LT bearish scenario. On our ests , co is priced for LT EBITDA margins 600bps below its 04–08E average & 230bps below co’s trough margins in that period. On our sequentially sharply falling 09 earnings ests co is trading at a P/E of 5.7x & an EV/EBITDA of 4.8x.
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