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Weakening growth adds pressure to ease policy.
Property and export weakness is likely to persist in H1, while policy loosening should
help contain downside risks.
Forecast change: We revise up our Q1 GDP forecast to 7.8% from 7.5% and our fullyear 2012 GDP forecast to 8.2% from 7.9%.
Activity: The economy has slowed sharply in recent months but has still been slightly
better than we expected. Industrial production growth slowed to 11.4% y-o-y in
January-February from 12.8% in December, fixed asset investment growth fell to
21.5% y-o-y from 23.8%, retail sales growth slowed to 14.7% y-o-y from 18.1%, and
export growth dropped to 6.8% y-o-y from 13.3%. On the positive side, the PMI index
picked up in February to 51.0 from 50.5 in January.
Inflation: CPI inflation moderated to 3.2% y-o-y in February from 4.5% in January,
mainly due to the Chinese New Year effect. PPI inflation fell further to 0.0% y-o-y in
February, from 0.7% in January. We expect CPI inflation to stay below 4% through H1
2012, largely reflecting base effects and food price disinflation. However, we see it
rising again in H2, remaining structurally high at 4.0% in 2012 and 4.2% in 2013,
driven by faster wage growth and liberalization of factor input prices.
Policy: The surprising RRR cut on 18 February suggests that authorities are more
worried about growth than inflation. We expect growth to trend down after the Chinese
New Year and believe the People’s Bank of China will cut interest rates by 25bp this
month and the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) by 50bp in April. At the recent
National People’s Congress the 2012 GDP growth target was lowered to 7.5% from
8% in previous years. We believe officials have become more tolerant of slower
growth and an aggressive fiscal stimulus is unlikely. The 2012 fiscal deficit is budgeted
at RMB800bn, down from RMB900bn in the 2011 budget.
Risks: Uncertainties continue to hinge on the export and property sectors. Downside
risks in Europe have eased, but still exist. Private property investment has cooled
quickly recently and leading indicators such as sales and new housing starts remain
weak. Property market policy is critical for the economic outlook, and we expect it to
be moderately loosened in the middle of the year, but uncertainty over the timing and
degree of policy easing is high.
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